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Ingreso: jun-2011
Mensajes: 913
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31-ene-2012, 18:17
#601
Este Par ya ha perforado los 1.24, por lo que entramos en la zona peligrosa...
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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31-ene-2012, 18:25
#602
Cita:
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: jun-2011
Mensajes: 913
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31-ene-2012, 18:33
#603
Cita:
Si, me referia a 1.2040... |
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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31-ene-2012, 19:29
#604
Cita:
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: mar-2009
Mensajes: 120
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02-feb-2012, 08:44
#605
Interesante comentario: los minoristas están 24 a 1 comprados: Forex: Salta la alarma en el SNB ante la fortaleza del franco suizo
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Ingreso: mar-2009
Mensajes: 120
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02-feb-2012, 15:30
#606
Entering the Intervention Zone
One Around Two We are near the edge on a few situations in the FX markets. I'm watching the EURCHF and the USDYEN. The market traded EURCHF to a low of 1.2032 today. It closed at a (slightly) safer 1.2044. I would not be surprised to see this cross trade very close to the official peg of 1.20 in the not too distant future. There is no doubt in my mind that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be involved when and if the EURCHF hits the 1.2000 mark. My guess is that 99% of everyone else who “votes” in this market believes the same. This begs a question. “If everyone knows the cross can’t go below 1.20, then why in hell is it sitting 44 lousy pips away from the peg?” The EURCHF is a very good funding currency for a carry trade. Yields on French and Italian bonds make it attractive, given that Swiss money can be had through the swaps with a negative Vig. It seems like the market wants to trade the EURCHF very close to the peg for the time being. That’s odd, given that it’s a “100% sure thing” that the SNB will protect the downside. The Dollar is a sideshow for the Swissie. I doubt many are trading USDCHF these days. It’s worth noting that the Dollar got beat up for five big figures against the Euro the past week or so. Normally when you see Euro strength versus the dollar, you also see it in the EURCHF cross. Not this time around. It does make me go Hmmmm. I think there are scenarios where the EURCHF could trade to the peg. If, by surprise… the Greek deal fell apart, money would move into the Franc. It could be something subtler. A reminder of just how fragile the Euro system is these days might do it. For example, this headline from the WSJ that came out after the NY close may scare the crap out of many people with bank accounts in the EU. If the EURCHF does test the peg, it will probably happen during European trading hours. I expect the SNB’s new boss, Thomas Jordan, will stand up and bid 1.1999 for all the Euros the market has on offer. A side story to this is what happens if the cross breaks the peg outside of Euro trading hours. What if some hedge-fund types lean on it at 3 PM on a Friday in NYC? The same question arises during Asian hours. If Monday morning, in Australia, the cross is offered at 1.1997, without a bid, it will create a big splash. That "100% sure thing" will immediately come into question. Mr. Jordan doesn’t want that. There are only two possibilities for intervention outside of the Euro time zone: 1) The SNB can rely on the Central Banks of Australia, Japan and the USA. Those CB’s would act on behalf of the SNB during their respective market hours. But, realistically, there is no chance in hell for this. The US Fed can’t play in this sandbox. For the Fed to participate in an effort to weaken the Franc would make it (and Tim Geithner) look silly. The USA has been threatening China with all manner of sanctions over China’s policy of maintaining an artificially weak currency. The Fed simply can’t help Switzerland do the same thing. 2) The SNB will give “resting” orders to commercial banks. The most likely name for this would be UBS. It would not surprise me if one of the other big banks had a turn at doing the SNB’s calling. JPM and Bank of Tokyo are likely candidates, Barclays may get put on the list if persistent intervention was required. The resting order might be: To: Bank of Tokyo, Tokyo - FX Department Firm order, good till cancelled. SNB offers to purchase up to Euro 200 million versus CHF at 1.1999. Call Hans -immediately- if the first E50mm is executed. With this, we get the EURCHF trading “one-around-two” (one pip around 1.200 or, 1.1999 – 1.2001). A few thoughts about resting orders from CBs. *The information always leaks. *The bank operating for the SNB will be named. *A bank that has a large resting order from a CB has a huge tactical advantage against other market players. (I know, I played this game.) *A move into the intervention zone will rile other markets, most notably in the Euro funding markets. Bruce Krasting: Entering the Intervention Zone |
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Ingreso: abr-2011
Mensajes: 1.511
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03-feb-2012, 04:46
#607
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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14-feb-2012, 15:47
#608
De momento en esa zona cerre todo a la espera de una nueva entrada...
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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25-feb-2012, 08:07
#609
Pues parece que me sali en el sitio correcto y a partir de aqui mismo ya se puede empezar a pensar en compras...
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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19-mar-2012, 14:09
#610
Cita:
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: mar-2011
Mensajes: 1.466
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02-abr-2012, 23:50
#611
hora de compras AKER ?
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intrepido en la caverna
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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03-abr-2012, 06:22
#612
El ultimo impulso salido desde esta zona...
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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07-abr-2012, 08:59
#613
Tenemos al par con un primer testeo al nivel intervenido por el SNB y si no actuan rapidamente daran a entender debilidad en esa politica que habian dicho lo que sera aprovechado por los malvados especuladores para darles un poco de caña. Recordar que tambien tuvieron intervenido al par en los 1,50 y hoy estamos donde estamos.
Yo estoy comprado y mi stop es un cierre diario por debajo de los 1,20... 
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: oct-2011
Mensajes: 18
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07-abr-2012, 12:45
#614
Donde podría llevarnos una intervención, tanto en el EUR/CHF como en el YEN/CHF?
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Ingreso: nov-2008
Mensajes: 26.585
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07-abr-2012, 13:07
#615
Yo por mi parte solo seguire este par aunque el posible movimiento sea en todos los relacionados...
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TU ERES EL RESPONSABLE DE TODO LO QUE TE SUCEDE Y TU ERES EL UNICO QUE PUEDE DIRIGIR TU DESTINO...
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Ingreso: mar-2011
Mensajes: 1.466
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07-abr-2012, 16:02
#616
Pos ya me veo esperandon una intervenación como en el usdjpy k nunca llegó
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intrepido en la caverna
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Ingreso: abr-2011
Mensajes: 1.511
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17-abr-2012, 23:55
#617
¿Nos darán una alegría un día de éstos?
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Ingreso: abr-2011
Mensajes: 1.511
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18-abr-2012, 07:24
#618
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Ingreso: mar-2011
Mensajes: 1.466
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18-abr-2012, 07:59
#619
Cita:
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intrepido en la caverna
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Ingreso: abr-2011
Mensajes: 1.511
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18-abr-2012, 10:38
#620
En unos minutos:
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Mode Lineal
