> EVOLUCIÓN EURO FRANCO SUIZO EUR/CHF

[centauro]

el dolar con el franco ???? Complicado al menos en el corto plazo la verdad, gracias

[candemorr]

Iniciado por aker

Alguno estaba dentro de esta seccion y espero que haya tomado parciales, y pasado a BE, donde comentamos cuando es contratendencia...

jeje, para ser de las primeras que hago y teniendo en cuenta el hachazo que le han dado, las heridas han sido aceptables....
El Tp1 tomado, ya lo de pasar a BE...
en esa otra parte me ha saltado el stop inicial

[aker]

Iniciado por candemorr

jeje, para ser de las primeras que hago y teniendo en cuenta el hachazo que le han dado, las heridas han sido aceptables....
El Tp1 tomado, ya lo de pasar a BE...
en esa otra parte me ha saltado el stop inicial

Teniendo en cuenta que era contratendencia y sin ninguna referencia a la vista, TP1 y BE deben de ir al unisono. De todas maneras nos tenemos que quedar con lo positivo que no es otra cosa que has interpretado perfectamente la señal...

[TAGORIANA]

Grafico mensual..

Tirando Fibo se puede ver los niveles los que podría subir enn caso de rebote, que es mucho decir, pero claro es grafico mensual, que nadie se piense que es para mañana. El DPO que es la linea roja tiene doble suelo, es una esperanza y el RSI ha bajado del 20. en el siguiente grafico lo pongo mas alejado para que se pueda ver de donde salen las lineas naranjas. besitos tago

[Chiquitin]

Si hubieramos tocado suelo con el EUR/CHF, estos serían para mi las probables zonas de retrocesos. El primero sería cerca de 1,2150.

[Chiquitin]

El siguiente 1,30

[Warren]

El Banco Nacional Suizo vuelve a intervenir para debilitar al franco
El Banco Nacional Suizo (BNS) ha anunciado que va a aumentar de nuevo la liquidez en el mercado monetario de francos suizos para combatir su continua apreciación.

Fuente: www.expansion.com

[r2d2_74]

Interesante articulo publicado en el día de ayer:

Swiss to Join the EU – NOT!
Both USDCHF and EURCHF are up on the day by a very big 5%. This is mega volatility. The “book” and cash gains and losses are staggering. Some finance ministers are sighing relief over this. I look it at and just see extreme instability.

No doubt but that the Swissie was overbought against all crosses. Some type of correction was in order. The Swiss National Bank has dumped a ton of liquidity (CHF 90B) on the market. This has pushed Swiss rates below zero. This distortion contributed to today’s reversal. But it was a story out of Zurich that Switzerland was contemplating joining the EU that was the real catalyst for the reversal. Some details.




An SNB VP, Thomas Jordan, had this to say: (my translation and original text)

The SNB may consider a temporary link to the Euro.

Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) kann sich vorstellen den Franken vorübergehend an den Euro zu binden

This was the sentence that got the markets roaring. The TV folks jumped on this “good news” story. But they left out the next sentence:

A permanent connection of the franc to the euro, however, is not compatible with the laws of the Swiss constitution.

Eine permanente Anbindung des Frankens an den Euro hält die SNB indes für mit ihrem Verfassungsauftrag nicht vereinbar.


For Switzerland to join the EU and abandon the Franc as the national currency it would require a national referendum and a change of the constitution. It was 160 years ago in 1850 that Switzerland established the law that ensured they would be a global reserve currency. That decision has paid dividends to the Swiss damn near every year since. I see little prospect for such a major change anytime soon.

A similar approach was defeated in 2001. At that time the Euro zone was thriving with the reduced inflation and expanded debt market that Euro intergration first brought. The Swiss didn’t want any part of the EU when things were good. It’s very unlikely they would want to sign up when things are falling apart. The Swiss would look at this as a bailout of Southern Europe. That is an extremely tough sell in Switzerland. It would take a year before there could be a vote on such an important change in the constitution.

Shortly after the Zurich report a Paris based NYTs writer, ran with the story. The Times used the same misleading headline.




This story had the same conclusion as everyone else:

A (currency) peg would require changing the Swiss constitution, which has regulated the currency since 1850.

Linking the franc to the euro could not happen overnight, and would face steep legal and political hurdles.

A tangent on this story:

I had the TV on this morning with the cheerleaders at CNBC on in the background. About 9:30 one of the regulars (Pisani?) reports on the Daily Mail’s gaff yesterday and apology today. The Mail ran a story suggesting that French banks were facing liquidity problems. They had to withdraw it today. CNBC’s comment was something about responsible journalism and market rumors. Like CNBC is above all of that.

A few minutes later another (blonde) comes on and leads with the Times headline. She says nothing about the substance of the article. She spins it like this is a “good news” story and even throws out a fabrication she heard someplace that the conversion rate for the EURCHF peg would be at 1.15. With this, CNBC started a massive rumor that ended with one of the biggest movements in the CHF in history.

At the time this lie was told the EURCHF was about 1.04. So CNBC was suggesting the Franc would fall by 10+%. That is a very big move. CNBC added to the panic trading. So much for that integrity thing…


Now my take.

First, I put the odds of a CHF peg at a very low level. I think this was the SNB's way of talking down the currency. They used the press to achieve their ends.

Second, let’s consider what it might take to actually get the Swiss people to agree to abandon the Franc and embrace the Euro. It is also necessary to consider what key conditions the big core Euro countries would insist on as a condition for the Swiss joining their party.

It just so happens that both conditions are the same. The EURCHF would have to be much lower than it is today. It would have to be below par. It would probably require a fixing at .90 CHF per Euro. That would imply that the Franc would have to APPRECIATE by as much as 20% before it would be acceptable to both the Swiss people and the politicians in Brussels.

To get the Swiss to vote YES they would have to be bought. All Swiss have savings. A conversion to Euros at .90 would make them “Euro Rich”. While the Swiss may value their currency independence they also know their exchange rates and a big profit. At the “right” currency rate the vote could be bought.

The French, Germans, Dutch and Italians would be reluctant to let a country into their midst that produces food and goods that would not be subject to tariffs. The French farmers would insist on a high conversion rate. German and Italian manufacturers want to keep Swiss producers at a competitive disadvantage. They too would want a high conversion rate.

So everyone with a seat at the table wants a strong Franc (Swiss industry would squeal, but they don’t vote. The Swiss farmers would get rich).

When CNBC threw out the fictitious rate of 1.15 it added gas to today’s market frenzy. I don’t doubt that someone heard this number being bandied about. I wonder if it was not from some Swiss journalist rather than a financial person. A Swiss could look at this from their perspective. 1.15 can also mean the numbers of Euros each Swiss Franc would convert to. In FX markets we think of EURCHF. Swiss people think of it as CHFEUR. Just for the record, 1.15 CHFEUR is the same as EURCHF at .8700.

I’m at all sure what comes next for the CHF. We are in very unstable times. I see no reason why stability is going to show up tomorrow and stay for a long visit. What I do know is that the talk of a CHF peg is very premature, I know that if it were to happen it would have to be at levels much lower than exist today. I also know that one should not get their thinking on FX from the touts nice folks at CNBC.

Link at: http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/08/swiss-to-join-eu-not.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm _campaign=Feed%3A+BruceKrasting+%28Bruce+Krasting% 29

[Chiquitin]

Lo veo mejor que la última vez. He modificado el Fibo porque hemos alcanzado mínimos más bajos este mes. El Fibo nos indicaría las posibles zonas de retroceso.
Lo más interesante es la vela que se esta formando este mes. Todavía es pronto porque antes de final de mes podemos volver hacia abajo. Pero si se confirmará este inmenso martillo con esa mecha mensual larguisima nos indicaría que probablemente en el medio plazo hemos hecho suelo.
habrá que ver el desenlace que nos reserva la proxima quincena del mes.
Es pronto para echar las campanas al vuelo.

[Iroman]

Pues sigue la escalada ,haber si algún alma caritativa pone un grf de largo para tener una visión de hasta donde puede llegar el rebote.
Saludos

[JSSF]

Es de anoche. Espero que te ayude.

[TAGORIANA]

Esta un poco abandonado este hilo, parece que los multidiviseros nos hemos largado al otro foro, pero no puedo poner en el otro foro los graficos.



Podemos ver el HCHi el RSI para ser en grafico diario todavía le puede quedar subida no esta muy a tope, solo al 63, El DPO marca subida a la zona de 32, los niveles fibo estan claros, poco que decir.

Añadir ( para los mas novatos) que es grafico diario, asi que tendra que tomarse su tiempo esto no es para mañana, pero lo que digo ultimamente que con que no haga grandes bajadas, con estos intereses negativos, pues hay que estar aqui.( me refiero a los hipotecados no a los que tradean)
En fin que lo veo alcista, mientras no se demuestre lo contrario

Besitos tago

[TAGORIANA]

Problemas con los puñeteros graficos, espero tener suerte esta vez

Disculparme, aparentemente el grafico se pega, o eso veo yo, pero luego no sale.
Esto me pasa porque utilizo el navegar firefox y debe ser incompatible.

besitos tago

[espinchi]

Tago, cual es ese otro foro donde seguis comentando sobre EUR-CHF?

[tarkan101]

va camino de cerrar el hueco en torno 1,1090.

este par y el usd/chf han dado un juego espectacular en agosto, para los que dicen que este mes no merece operar mucho.

[tarkan101]

se cerro el hueco.

[hyboreo]

Hola Tago, el problema es que no tienes que pegar el gráfico en el texto, así no saldrá bien.

Lo mejor es colgar el grafico en internet y luego poner el cógido para colgarlo.

Te recomiendo que hagas lo que yo, te abres una cuenta en imageshack.us a modo de poder subir ahí los gráficos. Luego, una vez subida la imagen tienes una opción que dice algo así ...

Incrustar esta imagen

FORO

(Alt forum NO!!!!!)

Pegas el código que te da y ya la tienes insertada en el mensaje.

Suerte

Dejo aquí foto.

[r2d2_74]

Parece que al final se ha cumplido: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Suiza/toma/medidas/precedentes/anos/blindar/economia/elpepueco/20110906elpepueco_6/Tes

[aker]

Este "solo" ha subido 1170 pips y los malvados especuladores esperaran a que se acerque a esa zona para darle candela hacia el sur...

[TAGORIANA]

Lo mismo tengo suerte y esta vez se ve el grafico y si pues nada encantada de saludaros besitos tago